Ventura County Home Sales: March 2020 Report

Ventura County Home Sales: March 2020 Report

Ventura County homes sales for February 2020 (377) were up from February 2019 (360), although there were fewer sales than in January (398). The market is at that time of year where sales pick up. We have had extremely low inventory over the last months, and supply is still low.

The typical pattern is that listings increase starting in January, building momentum as the spring progresses. It may be that we’ve started the build early this year. Let’s see what happens, especially in light of the Coronavirus.

Real Estate Market Trends: A Bird’s Eye View

Here’s what we’re seeing out there. It’s still hard to find properties, but it’s getting better. If you’re a buyer, you have been feeling the pain of nothing to choose from for some months now.

Going forward, if you do find something, buckle up for a possible bidding war. It’s the new normal. We’re seeing multiple offers for the most desirable properties.

Last month’s market report can be seen here February 2020 Home Sales Update

Real Estate Market Data: Days on Market, Sales Price, Pending Listings, Average Price

• Median home sales price: .The median home sales price: $650,0000, up 3.2% from last year at this time. An increase year over year.
• Average single family home sales price: $857,484, up 13.4% from February 2019.
• New listings: Newly listed single family homes 635, up 7.8% from last year. This is very good news for buyers. More choices! And looking back just a month, January 2020 had 585 new listings. New inventory is increasing. Here is a CHART of the new listings that you can roll over with your mouse (or see the static one below).
• Active listings: Active listings were down to 1289 single family homes, a decrease of 26.8% from 2019 at this time (1760 homes). This is a 500 home decrease, but it’s not new news! It was the same in last month’s report. What to be encouraged about is that January 2020 had 1220 SFR homes for sale, so we are up from last month.
• Pending listings: Pending listings were 412 for the month, up down 4.8% from last February. January had 390 pending listings, so we are up month over month. More escrows in play.
• Closed listings: This is the most important category. What actually closed escrow. There were 377 closed sales (vs 360 last February). We’re down from last month (398), but don’t worry.

The chart below of New Listings for single family homes shows how inventory has gone up and down. You can see that we are on an upward part of the trend.

Real Estate Market Statistics: Ventura County Zip Code Level

Active listings in the context of this report represents all homes that are in the process of being sold. This category encompasses the MLS categories of Active, Active Under Contract, and Pending. In other words, they are at any stage of “for sale”, but have not sold yet.

Below is a chart of single-family home, condo, and town home sales in the predominant ZIP Codes of the Conejo Valley and nearby cities. 

This shows how specific zip codes compared to each other.

Absorption Rate and What’s Hot, Hot, Hot!

Take a look at everything highlighted in yellow. Absorption Rate or Months of Supply shows how long it would take to sell the existing inventory if no new homes came on the market. Although Ventura County inventory would run out in 2.4 months, several zip codes are UNDER 2 months.

FYI The way that Absorption Rate is calculated in the above chart is based on current inventory divided by the average monthly pending sales from last 12 months.

91320 Newbury Park Absorption Rate

91360 Thousand Oaks Absorption Rate

93063 Simi Valley Absorption Rate

93065 Simi Valley Absorption Rate

What Buyers Need to Know

In short, there was little supply to choose from. Hint: If you are a buyer and you like something, decide quickly and offer strong. You might only get one chance in this seller’s market.

Just to give a broader perspective in where we are in the scheme of things, home sales declined at the end of the year. The supply starts building at the new year, so there will be more to choose from as the months progress out of winter to spring.

What Sellers Need to Know

This is a strong seller’s market. A low supply of active listings and low months of inventory means less competition and is likely good news to your ears. It is still important to price it commensurate with its condition, location, and size. Otherwise it could sit.

A Peek at the Nearby Valleys

The San Fernando Valley and Santa Clarita Valley continue with extremely low inventory.

It turns out that the Valley and particular parts of Los Angeles County have an even tighter inventory than we do. Ventura County. You think there’s a low supply in Ventura County? The San Fernando Valley has 1.7 months and Santa Clarita Valley has 1.8 months!

The San Fernando Valley and Santa Clarita Valley: Still Tight Inventory

Mortgage Income Requirements

Wrap Up and My Two Cents

Look for the number of listings to increase, if we are in for a typical spring. That will be welcome news for buyers. The virus may change the level of activity.

And sellers, get ready. Supply is still low and this could be a good situation for you as you sell.