October 2022 Home Sales Report: Spooky or Scary Times in the Home Sales Market?

Ventura County Housing Market Update – October 2022

Reminder: For the October 2022 report, we are looking at what sold in September. Compare this to what the market looked like 2 years ago in the October 2020 report. A LOT has changed!

It’s starting to feel more like a “normal market” for home sales here on the Ventura County/Los Angeles County border. But it’s a shocker if you’ve only experienced the last 2 pedal-to-the-medal home selling years.

Prices aren’t screaming upward like they were, but they’re still up. Days on Market is lengthening. The intoxicated frenzy that we’ve experienced is not the same.

In September 2020 and 2021, a new listing would come on the market and everyone would SCRAMBLE to be the first in the door. Get in to see it or miss out. It was FOMO on steroids. New listings were like chum in the water.

Flash forward to now, in October 2022. Looking back one month at September sales, there are clear signs of the market slowing. In fact, it’s been slowing for a few months in our Ventura County border area, depending on the category.

And because nothing says it like a graph in living color, let’s jump in.

Focus on the PURPLE bar.

That’s us in 2022.

The October 2022 Big Picture View: 3 Years of Home Sales

Nothing tells the story in a right-to-the-point way like a graph.

So far this year, only March 2022’s home sales beat the other years. And only for that month. For the rest of the time we’ve been T R A I L I N G. The decrease started in June, blip up for August, then started down.

Why’s that? I have an idea. Interest rates matter to buyers. It impinges on what they can afford.

Affordability is an issue.

I love clear cut charts like this one. It’s easy to get lost in a graph, but the blue blocks are simple but clear.

Because the last 2 years were so unusual, let’s get a longer perspective. Take a look at the last 5 years.

Year Over Year: Comparing Septembers

A few things to notice:

• Prices are still up, but Median Days on Market has increased. It’s taking longer to sell.
• The Median List Price to Sold Ratio has weakened to under 100%. Sellers are not necessarily getting over asking. This is a new thing.
• Fewer new listings = fewer choices = fewer sales. What happens if inventory increases? Right now we have LOW supply, but keep an eye out if this changes.

Days on Market: Taking A Little Longer, But Still Low

Days on Market is from the time the property enters the market until it enters escrow.

It had been decreasing, but starting in April 2022 it started going up.

April was 11 days. Now we’re at 29.

New Listings: Still Low Inventory

You cannot buy what is not for sale. New inventory is still low.

Median Sales Price: Easing

From Our Nearby Valleys: San Fernando Valley and Santa Clarita Valley

Here’s the nearby lowdown.

September was not out at the time of publication, but August tells a story. Look at the income needed to qualify for a loan now that interest rates are higher.

Buyers are biting their fingernails.

What Buyers Need to Know

With interest rates higher and fluctuating, stay in touch with your lender. As the interest rates inch up, it chips away at your purchasing power. So keep a pulse on what’s going on.

It’s easier for buyers now, with less competition.

Know the numbers.

What Sellers Need to Know

Now is the time to get real with your listing price. This is not the same market as before. It’s still a seller’s market, but be sure to talk to your realtor about today’s new reality.

And these hints below are the same as before:

MAKE YOUR HOME SPARKLE to get the maximum sales price. Yes, even surgically clean.

CONSULT WITH your REALTOR® before embarking on any improvements to get your house ready for sale. They will do a market study to see what is standard for repairs and improvements in your specific neighborhood. Keep in mind that some repairs pay off, and others don’t, so spend your improvement money in the right place.

BRAINSTORM with your REALTOR® about the current mindset of buyers. It changes.

Consider putting on the glitz to for a top price.

Wrap Up

Be careful of thinking that 2020 and 2021 are typical. They aren’t. Don’t count on the exuberance of those two years to carry you into the future, and certainly don’t use them as a barometer for the way the market really is over time.

Stay light on your toes, pivot if you need to, check the temperature regularly to get a sense of safety, and let the data guide you.

The market is always changing, always.

I can be of help or if you need any additional information, please don’t hesitate to contact me directly.

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