November 2022 Home Sales Report: Feeling the Fall Chill or Full Steam Ahead?

Ventura County Housing Market Update – November 2022

Reminder: For the November 2022 report, we are looking at what sold in October. Compare this to what the market looked like 2 years ago in the NOVEMBER 2020 REPORT. That was a year of breaking records.

We’re nearing the end of the year, and the market in Ventura County for home sales has changed significantly since January. It’s not just in our immediate local area. This is a national thing.

Interest rates have doubled, and the housing market is definitely feeling the interest rates pinch.

If you’re a seller, it’s hard to imagine moving if you have one of the low interest rates. You don’t want to give up that low rate.

This causes people to stay put. As a result, we’ve seen a significant decrease in inventory, as noted in the image below.

Statistic #1 to Watch: Days on Market

Days on Market is increasing and has been for several months.

It’s important to view it in historical context, however, and not go too “Chicken Little”.

You can get a sense of the last 5 years in the chart below.

Days on Market is up, but is still way below pre-2019 figures. In addition, it’s not unusual for houses to remain on the market longer as activity slows in the lead-up to the holidays.

Nevertheless, although this metric still remains historically low, we need to keep an eye on it as a potential canary that alerts us to a broader shift.

Statistic #2 to Watch: Sales to List Price Ratio

In the graph below, you’ll see that things began to change in April 2022. Change as in “not as wildly over asking.”

Careful not to overreact.

This DOES NOT mean that prices are plummeting. It DOES mean that buyers are not paying the intense over asking prices of last year.

Sobriety has set in. It’s a big change from the Vegas bidding wars of last year.

Don’t assume the negative.

Prices are up. Competition is there. People still want houses. Life goes on.

So here’s the bottom line: We have low inventory, prices remain strong, and many sales are still over asking.

It’s just not like before. And THAT was not typical in any way.

The Entire Month on One Page: October Last Year vs This Year

A few things to notice about October’s home sales:

• Fewer new listings (fewer choices). Fewer escrows (fewer pendings). And consequently, fewer Closed Sales.
• The Median List Price to Sold Ratio continues its decline. It’s down to 99% of asking.
• The median sales price is up 3.1% year over year. Good news for sellers.

The Zip Code Level: Which Cities had the Most Sales?

There was quite a bit of activity in October for Ventura County (and a couple LA County zips).

Check it out below.

From Our Nearby Valleys: San Fernando Valley and Santa Clarita Valley

This gives you a sense of how the Conejo Valley, Simi Valley (and Moorpark), and the VC Beach cities down the Camarillo Grade all line up with each other.

What’s going on in Ventura County is felt in other areas as well.

This Income-to-Loan Guide is eye-opening.

You can see the influence that interest rates have on “minimum income needed to qualify for a loan.”

$212,068 in order to buy the median priced home.

Ouch, if you’re a buyer.

One more reason to keep a hawk’s eye on interest rates if you’re a buyer or a seller.

What Buyers Need to Know

Watch those interest rates like a hawk. Stay in touch with your lender.

With the rise in rates, this impacts your pocketbook.

We’ve seen fluctuations in rates, so don’t assume anything.

Know the numbers.

What Sellers Need to Know

Be aware that last year’s market is different from the present.

Become familiar with the concept of an interest rate buy-down for the buyer.

And as for prep, still the same.

MAKE YOUR HOME SPARKLE to get the maximum sales price. Yes, even surgically clean.

CONSULT WITH your REALTOR® before making improvements as you get your house ready for sale. Some repairs are crucial,; others aren’t. Spend wisely and strategically.

BRAINSTORM with your REALTOR® about strategies as the market changes.

Wrap Up

Now more than ever is the time to stay current on what’s happening, and to follow the most recent data.

The market is always changing, always. Don’t be blind. WATCH THE DATA.

I can be of help or if you need any additional information, please don’t hesitate to contact me directly.

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