Ventura County Real Estate Market Update – July 2023
How does last year compare with this year? Take a look back at May 2022 to get an idea of how the market has changed in just over a year’s time
The spring and early summer are SUPPOSED to be the briskest time for home sales. Not true in 2023.
The supply is clearly down, and although prices remain strong in Ventura County and neighboring parts of Los Angeles County (like the San Fernando Valley and Santa Clarita Valley), we haven’t seen a supply surge. Spring/Summer is typically the busiest time of the year.
New Listings & Active Listings
To give you an idea of the sheer numbers, here are the New Listings in the last three Junes. Down almost 40% in June 2023 from the same month a year ago.
The chart below is Active Inventory in Ventura County up to May 2023. Clearly lower inventory.
FYI Active inventory everything that is technically not sold yet. It can be available, under contract, or pending. It’s just not sold.
And the chart below is for Los Angeles County. Much bigger numbers, not as dramatic a change.
And clearly bigger supply overall.
- The April Big Picture Bird’s Eye View: Home Sales Year-Over-Year
- Closed Sales: Big Boing Up From February
- Days on Market: Less than 2 Weeks Again
- New Listings: Fewer than Last Year
- Median Sales Price: No Break in the Upward Trend
- The San Fernando Valley
- What Buyers Need to Know
- What Sellers Need to Know
- Wrap Up
Are Prices Holding Up? The Ratio Thing
If you compare the list price at the time the buyer offered with the final price actually paid, you get a list to sales price ratio. If it’s over 100%, they paid over the asking price.
The market is basically super strong and going sideways, at a solid 100%.
Looking back a year, it’s not as lofty as in the beginning of 2022 where the ratio approached 104%, but still solid.
Conclusion: Prices are holding up and buyers are paying asking or over asking.
Here it is another way. The Median Sales Price. We had a down point in December, but everything has continued upward since the start of this year.
Here it is as a line graph. We zigged down last fall, but it’s now going up.
And here it is as sheer percentages. That’s a SOLID 100% over and over again.
Days on Market and Months of Supply
Supply is the catalyst. Inventory is everything.
And how long it takes to get a property into an official contract is a major component that reflects the sentiment of the buyer.
See how Median Days on Market was up at the start of the new year, but has steadily decreased.
Key Points About June 2023‘s Home Sales
- LOW SUPPLY compared to last year, resulting in fewer home sales (SFR’s 388 vs 555).
- Median sales price up a little bit from last year at + 1.6%
- Days on Market decreasing since January (homes getting into contract faster). Properties are getting zapped up.
- Months of Supply compared to the last 3 years hasn’t changed much. This hovering-around-two-months is very low. A “normal” supply is supposed to be 5 months, but we don’t really see that in our market. For at least the last decade it’s been low.
How’s Your Zip? Home Sales Data By Zip Code
As usual, West Simi Valley outpaced everything. Still good activity in most zips. Thousand Oaks/Westlake Village’s 91362 also had quite a surge.
The Other Valleys
The San Fernando Valley shows a decrease in the Median Home Sale Price of -9% for single family homes.
Like Ventura County, the months of supply for the SF Valley was in the 2 month range.
The Santa Clarita Valley also shows a decrease in the Median Home Sale Price of -5% for single family homes (less than the San Fernando Valley).
In contrast, Ventura County had a 1.6% increase in median price.
What Buyers Need to Know
It’s still a time of low supply. Buyers, be quick and be patient. I know it’s hard to do with such low supply.
Interest rates continue to change. Make sure you stay in touch with your lender about rates to time it right. If interest rates increase, this is particularly important.
What Sellers Need to Know
Buy-downs for the buyer are still out there as a negotiating point.
If you are moving out of state, it’s more important than ever to plan your move early on and make moving reservations. Lots of movement in general from state to state. You could be facing competition for moving companies as well as housing supply in the area you’re moving to.
With the market moving quickly and a high amount of demand, be sure to consult with your realtor about changing buyer expectations.
Wrap Up
Watch the DATA. Stay aware. The numbers tell the story.
Look for a slowing as we approach the winter holidays.
I can be of help or if you need any additional information, get in touch.
